Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment
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Department of Applied Plant Science, Chonnam National University, 77 Youngbong-ro, Buk-gu, Gwangju 500-757, Korea
US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, USDA, Agricultural Research Service, 21881 North Cardon Lane, Maricopa, AZ 85138, USA
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Publication date: 2016-07-15
Int. Agrophys. 2016, 30(3): 311-322
Potential impacts of climate change on grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) productivity were investigated using the CERES-sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer v4.5. The model was first calibrated for a sorghum cultivar grown in a free air CO2 enrichment experiment at the University of Arizona, Maricopa, Arizona, USA in 1998. The model was then validated with an independent dataset collected in 1999. The simulated grain yield, growth, and soil water of sorghum for the both years were in statistical agreement with the corresponding measurements, respectively. Neither simulated nor measured yields responded to elevated CO2, but both were sensitive to water supply. The validated model was then applied to simulate possible effects of climate change on sorghum grain yield and water use efficiency in western North America for the years 2080-2100. The projected CO2 fertilizer effect on grain yield was dominated by the adverse effect of projected temperature increases. Therefore, temperature appears to be a dominant driver of the global climate change influencing future sorghum productivity. These results suggest that an increase in water demand for sorghum production should be anticipated in a future high-CO2 world.
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