Simulated impacts of rainfall extremes on yield responses of various barley varieties in a temperate region
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Crop Research Division, Jeollanamdo Agricultural Research and Extension Services, Naju-si, Jeollanam-do 58123, Korea
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Dongguk University-Seoul, Seoul 04620, Korea
Department of Environmental Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, College of Life Science and Biotechnology, Dankook University, Cheonan-si, Chungnam 31116, Korea
Final revision date: 2021-03-05
Acceptance date: 2021-03-08
Publication date: 2021-04-15
Corresponding author
Sumin Kim   

Department of Environmental Horticulture & Landscape Architecture, College of Life Science & Biotechnology, Dankook University, Korea (South)
Int. Agrophys. 2021, 35(2): 119-129
As population rises, more people need to be fed. With increasing income, the potential exists for increases in the demand for cereals (i.e., barley). Since barley has a high level of tolerance to environmental stressors, this crop has been recommended as a potential crop for food security in marginal environments. In this study, a crop growth Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria model, was parameterized and used to simulate the yields of two barley types grown in a temperate environment at a latitude of 35°N. In order to apply this crop model to barley, 19 years of field data were used to model calibration and validation. As a result, the ALMANAC model accurately simulated yields for both barley types. The validated model was used to predict yields under three diverse seasonal rainfall scenarios associated with different patterns of the Central Pacific El Niño influence. According to the simulation results, excessively high seasonal rainfall decreased barley yields. Crop price and annual revenue of the two barley types were also evaluated using a non-linear regression model. For the malt type, the food price was higher with a higher rainfall, while naked barley had a higher revenue under the conditions of a lower rainfall.
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